Summary:
We analyse global and local drivers of Bitcoin transactions against 45 fiat currencies in the largest peer-to-peer crypto exchanges. Global factors, such as momentum in the crypto-asset market or financial market volatility, do matter for Bitcoin trading. There is evidence of a global crypto cycle driven by speculative motives. Trading across currencies and users around the world moves in tandem with fluctuations in the Bitcoin price. Crypto shocks and global risk shocks are behind this cyclical comovement. Crucially, Bitcoin seems to also offer utility benefits in emerging and developing economies, since trading increases after idiosyncratic, currency-specific shocks that depreciate the currency. Local projections analysis and case studies confirm this important link between exchange rate instability and Bitcoin transactions.
Spanish layman's summary:
El estudio identifica factores globales y locales en el comercio de Bitcoin frente a monedas fiduciarias. Muestra un ciclo cripto global ligado al precio y, en economías emergentes, un mayor uso tras depreciaciones de la moneda.
English layman's summary:
The study identifies global and local drivers of Bitcoin trading against fiat currencies. It shows a global crypto cycle tied to price dynamics and higher use in emerging economies after currency depreciations.
Keywords: Digital currencies; Bitcoin; Peer-to-peer exchanges; Exchange rates; Emerging markets
JCR-JIF Impact Factor and WoS quartile: 3,600 - Q1 (2025)
DOI reference:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103405
Published on paper: September 2025.
Published on-line: August 2025.
Citation:
P. Di Casola, M.M. Habib, D. Tercero-Lucas, "Global and local drivers of Bitcoin trading vis-à-vis fiat currencies", Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 158, pp. 103405, September 2025. [Online: August 2025] doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103405
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